Is the highest-scoring move always the best move?

One board, worked through

This is the example board on the Crossplay page. You're 16 points behind, with R, O, H, T, N, L and M. It has 689 legal plays, and MOUTH scores the most:

RUTH is only the sixth-highest-scoring play, but it keeps L, M, N and O, and those set up a better next turn than what MOUTH leaves. It wins about 5 more games in every 100.

Why points aren't everything

• What you keep matters. The tiles left on your rack decide your next turn. Keeping a blank or an S, or getting rid of a Q, can be worth more than a few points now.
• What you open matters. A play that sets up a bonus square for your opponent can cost more than it scores.
• The score matters. Behind late in the game, you need a play that can catch up. Ahead, one that keeps the board tight.
• The end of the game is about finishing ahead. Once the bag is nearly empty, the best play is the one that finishes ahead, not the one that scores most.

How often it’s different

• In 30 random Crossplay openings, the play most likely to win was also the top-scoring play 19 times out of 29. Nine times it scored 1 to 6 points less, and once it swapped to keep a blank.
• With a blank, the gap can be big. On an empty Scrabble board with I, I, K, N, U, Y and a blank, the top-scoring play is YUKINg for 32. Next Tile picks YUK for 20, keeping the blank, and wins 74% of the time.

How Next Tile ranks plays

• It finds every legal play and scores each one exactly.
• Then it plays the game out many times for the strongest candidates, against the tiles your opponent might hold, and ranks them by how often you win.
• It says why. Each pick comes with a short reason, like keeping better tiles or using a bonus square.

Questions